Even before the new Republican House majority has taken office, Republicans are openly criticizing one another over spending. When a Democrat is in the White House, Republicans have a history of wanting to reduce spending. However, once a Republican is in the White House, they are happy to allow spending to spiral out of hand.
Conservatives are unsure whether national Republicans are willing to wait that long to break the bank in light of the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending plan. Republicans are also no strangers to this conundrum, of course. Even while the House is the chamber from which appropriations and revenue bills originate, you cannot balance the federal budget, reform entitlements, or limit expenditure with exclusive control of the body.
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House Republicans would likely have to force a government shutdown around Christmas in order to get budget reductions from a Democratic president and Senate, for which they will be held accountable. With the notable exception of an immigration standoff in 2018 when a number of red-state Democrats were up for reelection in the Senate, Republicans have suffered politically from the majority of partial government shutdowns since their first House majority in 40 years in 1995.
The alternative is to largely support current spending levels, as 18 Republican senators are alleged to have done with the most recent federal funding agreement, according to House conservatives.
However, the issue is far from limited to the most recent financial altercations. Republicans campaign against Democratic spending that is out of control and then either appear to be doing nothing about it or engaging in riskier economic activity to impose their will on whichever liberal is in charge of the Resolute Desk.
Under Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden, this pattern has appeared. Two Democratic chief executives who appeared doomed just two years prior were reelected in the first two circumstances.
It’s barely a choice at all to shut everything down or to go along to get along. Republicans have the choice to be fiscally irresponsible or to make fiscal discipline appear irresponsible. Additionally, it now highlights a wider temperamental gap within the party about its approach to general government.
In the weeks running up to the midterm elections, Biden repeatedly warned Republicans that he would be forced to reduce Social Security and Medicare by defaulting on the country’s debt. Republicans then underperformed expectations for a number of reasons, but it’s not the only or even the most significant one. There is a reason, though, why this has been a staple of the Democratic playbook for so long.
In the past, fiscal brinksmanship for limited government has had some modest triumphs. Under the Clinton administration, federal expenditure was undoubtedly lower than it would have been if Democrats had retained control of Congress beyond the first two years. Budget sequestration forced Obama, whose fiscal policy preferences were to the left of Clinton’s, to make some cuts.
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Biden’s desire to spend more money and his consequent capacity to rekindle inflation will be restrained by a new Republican majority simply by his presence. Reconciliation, which will now essentially be off the table, allowed for the passage of two of the largest spending packages of the Biden administration. No matter which legislative procedure is used, the GOP can halt additional spending as long as its members can remain united.
However, the overall trajectory of federal spending and debt remained basically constant, and there were considerable political repercussions. Under Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump, Republicans made no effort to oppose the big old spending party.
It’s also possible that some New Right conservatives now are less driven by fiscal and spending priorities than they were in the heady days of Newt Gingrich and the “Republican revolution” of 1994. If so, the GOP conference members who are least prone to compromise will have other priorities.
However, the omnibus budget measure is likely to join the 1990 George H.W. Bush tax hike, the George W. Bush immigration amnesty initiatives, and the 2008 Wall Street bank rescue in the pantheon of topics that divide conservative activists from mainstream Republicans.
That does not eliminate the requirement for a fresh approach. The national debt, which reached $31 trillion this fall, is predicted by the Penn Wharton Budget Model to exceed 225% of the country’s GDP by 2050. But that’s a financial eternity to the majority of politicians who aren’t planning past 2024.
