You should approach any political story with a great deal of suspicion whenever it neatly fits into the worldview of our media elite. The notion that the overturning of Roe v. Wade would prompt independent voters to flock to the Democrats in a frantic attempt to preserve abortion was the narrative that most closely matched the biases of the major media.
But as of mid-October, almost all of the evidence used to suggest that Republicans would lose the abortion debate has vanished.
In this sense, the most recent New York Times survey serves as an example. On the general election ballot, women were split 47%–47%. Republicans now lead independent women by 10 points, a significant improvement from last month.
The following sentence summarizes the Times article: The majority of the change was among female independent voters. They backed Democrats by 14 points in September. Given the split of the American vote, the intensity with which Democrats have honed in on that demographic, and the danger Republicans pose to abortion rights, independent women now supported Republicans by 18 points.
Only 5% of prospective voters responded abortion when they were asked open-ended, “What do you believe is the most significant problem confronting the country today?” But the statistics indicate that roughly half of those individuals were Republicans or Independents (and most were Independents). Additionally, there is no reason to think that the 3% to 4% of voters who support abortion rights and are largely pro-choice are swing or marginal voters. Nearly all of them would vote in each election and would exclusively support Democrats.
Let’s zoom out as we shouldn’t place too much weight in any single survey. Look back a month or two and see how the pro-choice media’s justification is holding up. One of several media institutions to raise the banner that gubernatorial elections are the actual abortion battleground is The Washington Post.
Notably, Republicans are outperforming Republicans in other elections in a number of states that are in a tight race for governor.
Up until recently, Mandela Barnes was far ahead of incumbent pro-abortion Democrat Tony Evers in Wisconsin, but now Evers is only up by one point. Republican candidates for governor and senator in Nevada, Joe Lombardo and Adam Laxalt, are both narrowly ahead in the polls. Pro-life Republican gubernatorial candidates are outperforming pro-life GOP Senate candidates in Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Ohio. If they win, these candidates will have significant influence over state abortion laws. The major exception is Pennsylvania, where the Republican candidate for governor is incredibly unqualified and weak.
There are many reasons to be skeptical of this New York Times survey, especially after closely examining its subsamples. Additionally, while the Dobbs effect is shown in voter registration efforts, it’s conceivable that pollsters are unaware of it. But as of right now, any proof that Dobbs would give the election to the Democrats is dissipating.
